ZüKoSt Zürcher Kolloquium über Statistik

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18. November 2022
15:15-16:15

Eva Ceulemans
Universität Leuven

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Titel	KCP-RS and statistical process control: Flexible tools to flag changes in time series
Referent:in, Affiliation	Eva Ceulemans, Universität Leuven
Datum, Zeit	18. November 2022, 15:15-16:15
Ort	HG G 19.1
Abstract	Intensive longitudinal studies (e.g., experience sampling studies) have demonstrated that detecting changes in statistical features across time is crucial to better capture and understand psychological phenomena. For example, it has been uncovered that emotional episodes are characterized by changes in both means and correlations. In psychopathology research, recent evidence revealed that changes in means, variance, autocorrelation and correlation of experience sampling data can serve as early warning signs of an upcoming relapse into depression. In this talk, I will discuss flexible statistical tools for retrospectively and prospectively capturing such changes. First, I will present the KCP-RS framework, a retrospective change point detection framework that can be tailored to capture changes in not only the means but in any statistic that is relevant to the researcher. Second, I will turn to the prospective change detection problem, where I will argue that statistical process control procedures, originally developed for monitoring industrial processes, are promising tools but need tweaking to the problem at hand.

KCP-RS and statistical process control: Flexible tools to flag changes in time seriesread_more

25. November 2022
15:15-16:15

Mats Stensrud
EPFL Lausanne

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Titel	Bridging data and decisions: How strings of numbers can honestly guide future policies
Referent:in, Affiliation	Mats Stensrud , EPFL Lausanne
Datum, Zeit	25. November 2022, 15:15-16:15
Ort	HG G 19.1
Abstract	Investigators often express interest in effects that quantify the mechanism by which a treatment (exposure) affects an outcome. In this presentation, I will discuss how to formulate and choose effects that quantify mechanisms, beyond conventional average causal effects. I will consider the perspective of a decision maker, such as a patient, doctor or drug developer. I will emphasize that a careful articulation of a practically useful research question should either map to decision making at this point in time or in the future. A common feature of effects that are practically useful is that they correspond to possibly hypothetical but well-defined interventions in identifiable (sub)populations. To illustrate my points, I will consider examples that were recently used to motivate consideration of mechanistic effects, e.g. in clinical trials. In all of these examples, I will suggest different causal effects that correspond to explicit research questions of practical interest. These proposed effects also require less stringent identification assumptions.

Bridging data and decisions: How strings of numbers can honestly guide future policiesread_more

2. Dezember 2022
15:15-16:15

Gaudenz Koeppel
Chief Analytics Officer at Axpo Trading & Sales

Details

Titel	Machine Learning Models in Energy Markets
Referent:in, Affiliation	Gaudenz Koeppel, Chief Analytics Officer at Axpo Trading & Sales
Datum, Zeit	2. Dezember 2022, 15:15-16:15
Ort	HG G 19.1
Abstract	In this talk, Gaudenz Koeppel, Chief Analytics Officer at Axpo Trading & Sales, will talk us through their journey of building machine learning models for power trading applications and taking them into 24/7 operation. Gaudenz will expand on some of the learnings, the importance of explainers as well as how and what aspects of such models must be monitored and how this monitoring information creates new insights. This will be a very practical, hands-on talk.

Machine Learning Models in Energy Marketsread_more

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