ZüKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics

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Spring Semester 2020

Date / Time

Speaker

Title

Location

26 February 2020
16:15-17:15

Julie Josse
CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris

Details

ZueKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics

Title	Supervised learning with missing values
Speaker, Affiliation	Julie Josse, CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris
Date, Time	26 February 2020, 16:15-17:15
Location	HG G 19.1
Abstract	In many application settings, the data have missing features which make data analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing data in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here, we consider supervised-learning settings: predicting a target when missing values appear in both training and testing data. I will present the consistency of different approaches in prediction for general and linear models, including the use of very simple imputation methods. We analyze further decision trees. These can naturally tackle empirical risk minimization with missing values, due to their ability to handle the half-discrete nature of incomplete variables Reference papers: https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.06931 http://juliejosse.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/aistats-2.pdf

Supervised learning with missing valuesread_more

HG G 19.1

28 February 2020
16:15-17:00

Kaspar Rufibach
Methods, *Collaboration*, and Outreach Group

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ZueKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics

Title	Use of multistate models to improve decision-making in clinical trials
Speaker, Affiliation	Kaspar Rufibach, Methods, Collaboration, and Outreach Group
Date, Time	28 February 2020, 16:15-17:00
Location	HG G 19.1
Abstract	In this talk, I will illustrate how critical decisions in drug development are typically based on a tiny fraction of the collected data only. As an example, in early development oncology clinical trials, the decision whether to move a molecule to Phase 3 is typically based on response proportions and duration of response in those that respond, while in Phase 3 the primary endpoint will be long-term endpoints such as progression-free (PFS) or overall survival (OS). Effects on response-based short-term endpoints seldom translate in effects on these relevant endpoints. We propose to make decisions not based on intermediate endpoints, but on a prediction of the OS hazard ratio (HR) between data of the new molecule collected in the early phase trial and historical data of the control treatment. This HR prediction is using a multistate model based on the various disease states a patient may go through until death. This yields a gating strategy with improved operating characteristics compared to traditional decision rules in the context of early phase clinical trials. If time permits I will further discuss how the joint distribution of PFS and OS as a function of transition probabilities in a multistate model can be derived. No assumptions on copulae or latent event times are needed and the model is allowed to be non-Markov. From the joint distribution, statistics of interest can then readily be computed. As an example, we provide closed formulas and statistical inference for Pearson's correlation coefficient between PFS and OS. Our proposal complements existing approaches by providing methods of statistical inference while at the same time working within a much more parsimonious modelling framework. The main conclusion of this talk is that multistate models are a useful and underutilized tool in the analysis of clinical trial data. This is joint work with Ulrich Beyer, Jan Beyersmann, Matthias Meller, David Dejardin, and Uli Burger.

Use of multistate models to improve decision-making in clinical trialsread_more

HG G 19.1

13 March 2020
15:15-16:00

Cancelled ! Karsten Borgwardt
Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH

Details

ZueKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics

Title	cancelled
Speaker, Affiliation	Cancelled ! Karsten Borgwardt, Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH
Date, Time	13 March 2020, 15:15-16:00
Location	HG G 19.1
Abstract	tba

cancelledread_more

HG G 19.1

27 March 2020
15:15-16:15

Cancelled! Jakob Runge
Climate Informatics Group

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ZueKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics

Title	Cancelled! Inferring causation from time series with perspectives in Earth system sciences
Speaker, Affiliation	Cancelled! Jakob Runge, Climate Informatics Group
Date, Time	27 March 2020, 15:15-16:15
Location	HG G 19.2
Abstract	Cancelled! The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In disciplines dealing with complex dynamical systems, such as the Earth system, replicated real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated time series data opens up the use of observational causal inference methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Observational causal inference is a rapidly growing field with enormous potential to help answer long-standing scientific questions. Unfortunately, many methods are still little known and therefore rarely adopted in Earth system sciences. In this talk I will present a Perspective Paper in Nature Communications which identifies key generic problems and major challenges where causal methods have the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in Earth system sciences. I will also present a novel causal inference benchmark platform that aims to assess the performance of causal inference methods and to help practitioners choose the right method for a particular problem. Some recent methods that address particular challenges of Earth system data will be discussed and illustrated by application examples where causal methods have already led to novel insights in Earth sciences.

Cancelled! Inferring causation from time series with perspectives in Earth system sciencesread_more (CANCELLED)

HG G 19.2

15 May 2020
15:15-16:00

Noel Gorelick
Google/UZH

Details

ZueKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics

Title	cancelled! tba
Speaker, Affiliation	Noel Gorelick, Google/UZH
Date, Time	15 May 2020, 15:15-16:00
Location	HG G 19.1
Abstract	tba

cancelled! tbaread_more (CANCELLED)

HG G 19.1

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